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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a term - he found the net 11 times in his first seven games in 2022-23 and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him three strikes clear in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it even more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Of course, physical problems might significantly impact in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the award so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his typical competitors for the honor have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

And if we look at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this term from regular situations, the Norwegian striker is receiving significantly more excellent scoring situations to find the net than every other footballer.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at scoring from situations than any other player in the league, he would nevertheless have converted significantly more goals as all other players.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is illustrated by analyzing the total and standard of chances that footballers have received in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had previously registered more open-play attempts at this point in the last two seasons (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

What's particularly remarkable even by his standards is the quality of chances he has had this term. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to convert per attempt - because of a couple of tap-ins against the Hammers and Seagulls.

Haaland's xG of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the start of last season.

In short, the chances he has had in the current season have been notably easier to score from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as previously stated, not unusual for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had scored 10 goals - a quartet more than every other footballer and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who claimed the top scorer award with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the City forward.

This season, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League season the Pharaohs star has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It isn't only Salah who has begun modestly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players put together so far.

Be it because of fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the battle for the scoring title have not fired so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

Even as Haaland seems the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the attacker netting the highest number in Europe's premier competitions?

That competition is considerably more open at this initial phase because two world-class strikers have similarly opened in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals each.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the trio without having taken any penalties makes him the likely winner.

However, because the English and French stars are among the finest goal-scorers in European soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.